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clearsight.app/report/1247
· Deep Research · Research: $0.42
Will the Fed cut rates by 50bps at the December FOMC meeting?
Polymarket Macro Resolves Dec 18, 2025
50bps cut
23%
25bps cut
64%
Summary

Markets are pricing a 25bps cut as the dominant outcome heading into December, with the 50bps tail fading after hotter-than-expected CPI and services PMI prints. Fed funds futures imply an implied probability near 18–22% for a 50bps move — broadly consistent with Polymarket's 23%.

Key factors
  • CPI 3.2% YoY vs. consensus 3.0% — sticky services component
  • Payrolls cooling but above trend at 151k / 3m avg
  • Powell's Nov 14 remarks stressed "no rush" language
  • Two FOMC members pushing openly for faster easing
AI Verdict
Edge is slight on the NO side at 77¢. Base-case points to a 25bps cut; 50bps requires a materially weaker jobs print on Dec 6.
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